The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation expects coal production growth to 480 mln tons by 2030 in the best case scenario

In his speech, the Head of the Ministry of Energy mentioned that the industry restructuring has been successful so far.

“Today, the coal industry is basically the only one that managed to fully adapt after all the structural reforms, and is now operating on the market”, said Alexander Novak. ‘Over the last 10 years, the coal output increased by about 25% and now exceeds 350 mln tpa. At the same time, the number of staff engaged in this industry got reduced from 850 thousand to 160 thousand only. So actually, the efficiency of labor increased 4 times, and the amount of investment to the fixed capital of coal facilities increased 4 times as well. Every year, new coal production capacities are commissioned, which amounts to 20 mln tons annually”, quoted the Minister.

At the same time, export volumes of Russian coal grew by 30% over the last five years. The coal is now supplied to 50 countries throughout the world, and its share in the import volumes of some countries accounts for 30-60%. The export volumes to the Asia-Pacific Region increased almost by twice for the most recent five years.

“Considering measures taken for development of the transport infrastructure and opening of new highly profitable deposits, and increasing volumes of coal benefication products on the domestic market, we expect growth of production volumes to 480 mln tons by 2030 under the best case scenario”, said the Head of the Ministry of Energy. “Which includes 203 mln tons to 238 mln tons in Kuzbass, 37 to 52 mln tons growth in Baikal region, 33 to 75 mln tons growth in the Far East Federal District; and in the Eastern Siberia (excluding the Baikal region), coal production will grow from 58 mln tons to 90 mln tons”.

The level of export compared to the previous draft of the long-term development program will increase by 70 mln tons, plus the balance between the eastern and the western directions will change. The eastern direction will account for most of the increase, and there will be basically no change in supplies to the Atlantic market. Increase of supplies to the Asia-Pacific market is certainly related to the fast growth in demand. According to the international agencies, the coal market in the Asia-Pacific region will grow 1.5 times by 2030.