Key highlights:
Expected decrease in electricity production by HPPs in most macro-regions in 2Q 2014 as a result of low snow packs and water inflows to major reservoirs as compared to the same period of 2013;
Total electricity generation by power plants of RusHydro Group in 2Q 2014 amounted to 29,819 GWh (-11.8%), in 1H 2014 – 60,939 GWh (-6.3%);
In 2Q 2014, total production by HPPs/PSPPs amounted to 23,781 GWh (-13.3%), in 1H 2014 – 46,526 GWh (-6.1%);
In 1H 2014, total water inflow to reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade was lower than long-run average, to the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP reservoir– close to long-run average, to Kolymskaya HPP reservoir – 2x higher than normal;
The electricity generation by the plants of RAO ES of East in 2Q 2014 – 6,290 GWh (-5.1%), in 1H 2014 – 15,283 GWh (-6.4%);
The electricity generation by the Boguchanskaya hydropower plant in 2Q 2014 amounted to 2,551 GWh (+209.6%), in 1H 2014 – 4,243 GWh (+161.4%);
Water inflow to reservoirs of major hydropower plants of RusHydro Group in 3Q 2014 is expected to be close to long-run average.
In the 2nd quarter of 2014, total electricity generation by power plants of RusHydro amounted to 29,819 GWh, a 11.8% decrease as compared to the same period of 2013, total power generation in the 1st half of 2014 amounted to 60,939 GWh (-6.3%). In the 2nd quarter of 2014, hydropower (HPPs) and pumped storage power plants (PSPPs) of RusHydro Group decreased electricity generation by 13.3% to 23,781 GWh, in the 1st half of 2014 – by 6.1% to 46,526 GWh, output by thermal (TPPs) and geothermal plants located in the Far East of Russia in the 2nd quarter of 2014 decreased by 5.2% to 6,038 GWh, in the 1st half of 2014 output decreased by 6.6% to 14,412 GWh.
The underlying factors of the production change in January-June of 2014 were:
lower than long-run average water inflow to reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade;
water inflow to major reservoirs of Siberia was in line with long-run average level, to Kolymskaya hydropower plants reservoir – twice as high as normal;
decrease in electricity generation by TPPs of the Far East due to increased hydro production in the unified power system of the Far East and decrease in electricity consumption;
launch of the eighth hydropower unit at the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP in May of 2014.
Center of Russia
In the 2nd quarter of 2014, water inflow to reservoirs located on the Volga river was 40-80% of normal, water inflow to Ivankovskiy and Uglichskiy reservoirs was only 25% of normal level and the minimal in its history. Water inflow to reservoirs of the hydropower plants located on the Kama river was close to the long-run average. Total water inflow to reservoirs of the Volgo-Kama cascade in the 2nd quarter of 2014 amounted to 117 km3 as compared to the average of 161 km3. In the 1st half of 2014 total water inflow amounted to 156.8 km3 as compared to the average of 182.3 km3.
At the beginning of the spring flood the snow packs at the Upper Volga were close to its historical minimum, water storage in reservoirs of the Volgo-Kama cascade amounted to 26.5 km3 which is by 11 km3 lower than last year. The spring floods in the European part of Russia were slack due to cold air temperatures. The Uglichskaya and Rybinskaya HPPs were stopped due to low water inflow. Water inflow to reservoirs of the hydropower plants located on the Kama river was higher than long-run average as a result of abundant rainfalls.
Water resources in reservoirs of the Volgo-Kama cascade as of the beginning of the 3rd quarter amount to 69.7 km3 which is by 4.8% lower than long-run average level of 73.2 km3.
Total electricity generation by RusHydro’s hydropower plants of the Volgo-Kama cascade together with Zagorskaya pumped storage plant in the 2nd quarter of 2014 amounted to 12,008 GWh, a 15.6% decrease as compared to the same period of 2013. In the 1st half of 2014, generation reached 22,088 GWh, which is by 9% lower than in the same period of the previous year.
South of Russia and North Caucasus
Water conditions on the rivers of the South of Russia and North Caucasus in the 1st half of 2014 were close to the long-run average.
In the 1st quarter of 2014 water inflow to Dzaudzhikauskaya and Chirkeyskaya HPPs was close to normal. In the 2nd quarter of 2014 water inflow to Krasnodarskiy reservoir on the Kuban’ river was by 40% higher than long-run average, water inflow to Dzaudzhikauskaya and Chirkeyskaya HPPs was by 20-30% lower normal.
The electricity generation by the hydropower plants of the South of Russia and North Caucasus in the 2nd quarter of 2014 decreased by 28.0% to 1,707 GWh, in the 1st half of 2014 – by 17.6% to 3,126 GWh.
Siberia
In the 1st half of 2014, water inflow to major reservoirs of Siberia was close or slightly higher than long-run average. During winter and pre-flood period of 2014 the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant had been operating in a safe mode without releasing water through spillways.
From May 31, 2014, due to increase in forecasted water inflows in the beginning of June the Novosibirskaya HPP has been releasing water through spillways which allowed to increase flood-control storage to carry flood water over during overflow in Altayskiy region.
The Boguchanskaya hydropower plant in the 1st half of 2014 generated 4,243 GWh as compared to 1,623 GWh generated in the same period of the previous year. The construction of the plant has now reached its final stage; the plant has six hydropower units in operation, the pre-commissioning works are currently being done at two hydropower units of the plant. From November 2013 to May 2014 the plant’s reservoir level increased from 188.45 m to 203.5 m (design reservoir level is 208 m).
Total electricity generation by RusHydro’s Siberian hydropower plants in the 2nd quarter of 2014 decreased by 11.5% to 5,953 GWh, in the 1st half of 2014 – by 4.9% to 11,940 GWh.
Far East
The hydropower plants of the Far East have been operating in drawdown mode in order to provide for safety during the spring flood period. By the end of April, the reservoirs levels of the Zeyskaya and Bureyskaya HPPs amounted to 310.0 m and 236.0 m respectively.
In June and the 2nd quarter of 2014, water inflow to reservoirs of hydropower plants of the Far East was by 15-30% higher than normal, to Kolymskiy reservoir – 2x higher than normal.
In the 2nd quarter of 2014 Magadan region experienced intensive floods. The average water inflow to hydropower plants of RusHydro located on the Kolyma river amounted to 3100 m3/s, which is almost twice as high as normal level of 1740 m3/s. The main reason for high water inflow was intensive snow melting as well as heavy rains in the region. Currently, the Kolymskaya and Ust’-Srednekanskaya HPPs are operating normally.
The total electricity generated by hydro and geothermal power plants of the Far East in the 2nd quarter decreased by only 0.7% to 3,650 GWh. In the 1st half of 2014, the generation increased by 5.8% to 8,247 GWh.
In the 2nd quarter of 2014, the generating assets of RAO ES of the East, a subsidiary of RusHydro, produced 6,290 GWh of electricity, a 5.1% decrease as compared to the 2nd quarter of 2013. In the 1st half of 2014, the generation decreased by 6.4% to 15,283 GWh.
Of this total, 73% (11,149 GWh) was generated by Far East Generating Company, which decreased production by 7.9% as compared to the last year, mainly due to increased capacity of hydropower plants and decrease in electricity consumption by 1.6% as compared to the same period of 2013. In the 1st half of 2014, electricity generation by companies operating in isolated energy systems of the Far East amounted to 3,966 GWh, which is by 1.4% lower than in the previous year. At the same time Magadanskaya energy system increased electricity generation by thermal power plants by 5.6%.
In the 1st half of 2014, heat output by thermal plants of RAO ES of the East decreased by 6% to 18,128 ths. GCal as compared to the same period of 2013.
Armenia
In the 2nd quarter of 2014, electricity generation by the Sevan-Hrazdan cascade of hydropower plants in Armenia increased by 11.2% to 211 GWh, in the 1st half of 2014, electricity generation decreased by 6.7% to 255 GWh. The power generation by the plants of the cascade is dependent on water inflows of Hrazdan river and water releases from lake Sevan.
Power retail
In the 2nd quarter of 2014, total electricity output by RusHydro’s four retail companies, operating in Bashkiria, Chuvashia, Ryazan and Krasnoyarsk regions, amounted to 7,936.832 GWh, a 12.86% decrease as compared to the same period of 2013. The decrease is primarily attributable to reduction of output by Bashkiria power retail company by 25% as compared to the 2nd quarter of 2013, due to ongoing transfer of a number of major enterprises to independent wholesale electricity purchases within electricity market liberalization.
Water inflows forecast
According to the forecast of the Hydrometeorologic Center of Russia, the following dynamics of water inflows to the major reservoirs is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2014:
water inflow to the major reservoirs of the Volgo-Kama cascade in the 3rd quarter is expected to be close to normal – 31-39 km3 as compared to the average of 37.0 km3;
water inflow to the Krasnodarskoe reservoir is expected to be by 10-20% higher than normal, to the Dzaudzhikauskaya and Chirkeyskaya HPPs – by 10-25% lower than long-run average;
water inflow to reservoirs of hydropower plants of Siberia is expected to be close to long-run average, water inflow to Novosibirskiy reservoir is expected to be 10-15% higher than normal;
water inflow to the Zeyskaya and Bureyskaya HPPs in July is expected to be close to long-run average levels, to Kolymskiy reservoir – by 10-20% higher than normal.